Consultancy on Climate Change Simulation Models Development to Assess Impacts on Crop Productivity, Pasture Conditions, and Transboundary Pest Outbreaks
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)-Djibouti
Request for Expression of Interest
(Consulting Services – Individual Consultant Selection)
Name of project: FOOD SYSTEMS RESILIENCE PROGRAM FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AFRICA-Additional Financing (FSRP-AF)
Project No.: (P178566)
Grant No: TF-D0339
Assignment Title: Consultancy on Climate Change Simulation Models development to assess impacts on Crop Productivity, Pasture Conditions, and Transboundary Pest Outbreaks
Contract No.: DJ-IGAD-556148-CS-INDV
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has received additional financing from International Development Agency (IDA) the Food systems resilience program for Eastern and Southern Africa Phase 1 to scale-up Digital Agro-Climate Advisory Services and intends to apply part of the proceeds of this Grant to payments under this contract: Consultancy on Climate Change Simulation Models development to assess impacts on Crop Productivity, Pasture Conditions, and Transboundary Pest Outbreaks.
The objective of the assignment:
The overall objective of this consultancy is to develop integrated simulation models to assess how different climate-change scenarios may affect crop productivity, pasture conditions, and outbreaks of transboundary pests, while strengthening operational forecasting capabilities for these three thematic areas across the IGAD region. More details are available in the Terms of Reference attached/ or can be availed on request
Expected Outputs and Deliverables
The following deliverables are expected from this consultancy:
- Inception Report: Refined methodology, detailed work plan, proposed climate scenarios, modelling methods, and quality-assurance framework.
- Climate-Change Scenario Framework: Defined historical baseline, selected climate-change pathways, planning horizons, downscaling methods, and uncertainty-assessment approach.
- Crop Productivity Simulation Model: Validated models and scenario-analysis outputs showing projected changes in crop yields, growing seasons, crop stress, suitability, and production zones.
- Pasture and Rangeland Simulation Model: Validated models and analytical outputs on forage availability, biomass dynamics, drought stress, degradation risks, grazing suitability, and livestock-supporting capacity.
- Transboundary Pest-Risk Simulation Models: Validated models and risk maps for priority pests, covering environmental suitability, breeding conditions, outbreak probability, movement pathways, hotspots, and surveillance priorities.
- Operational Forecasting Systems: Forecasting workflows for crop productivity, pasture conditions, and transboundary pest risks, including agreed forecast lead times, update schedules, validation procedures, and operational requirements.
- Integrated Early Warning and Decision-Support Products: Risk maps, hotspot maps, dashboard indicators, seasonal outlooks, technical bulletins, early warning advisories, policy briefs, and guidance notes.
- Technical Documentation, Capacity Building, and Final Handover: Source code, scripts, user manuals, standard operating procedures, training materials, training reports, maintenance guidance, sustainability roadmap, and final consultancy report.
Minimum Consultant's qualifications and experience requirements
Minimum Qualifications
- Masters' degree in climate science, agrometeorology, agricultural modelling, environmental science, geospatial science, ecology, data science, or a closely related field.
- At least 7 years of relevant professional experience in climate-risk analysis, climate-change modelling, seasonal forecasting and agricultural forecasting with experience in Africa, preferably the Greater Horn of Africa.
- Skills and Competencies
- Demonstrated expertise in climate-change scenario analysis, including the use of Global and Regional climate Models (GCMs/RCMs) simulations and projections, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, downscaling techniques, bias correction, scenario interpretation, and uncertainty assessment for medium- and long-term planning.
- Proven experience in developing, calibrating, validating, and operationalising forecasting models for crop productivity, pasture and rangeland conditions, and transboundary pest risks using monthly, sub-seasonal, seasonal, and climate-scenario timescales, where applicable.
- Strong proficiency in integrating climate forecasts, historical observations, Earth Observation products, field-based data, agricultural statistics, and pest-surveillance information into robust modelling and forecasting workflows.
- Proficiency in analytical and programming environments such as Climate Data Operators (CDO) command lines, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models run, Python, R, Google Earth Engine, or equivalent platforms, with experience developing reproducible forecasting pipelines, automated workflows, interoperable outputs, dashboard-ready products, APIs, and model-update procedures.
- Strong analytical, communication, and stakeholder-engagement skills, including the ability to translate climate-change projections and forecasting outputs into technical reports, policy-relevant products, early warning advisories, training materials, and practical guidance for regional and national decision-makers.
- The Consulting Services Contract is expected to be for a period of Twelves (12) calendar months from the date of commencement.
HOW TO APPLY:
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) now invites individuals to express their interest in providing the services. Interested individuals must provide information indicating that they are qualified to perform the services (attach curriculum vitae (CV), copies of documentary evidence of Academic qualifications, and Professional Qualifications.
An Individual Consultant will be selected in accordance with the Selection of Individual Consultants method set out in the World Bank's Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers dated November 2020 (Regulations).
Interested individuals may obtain further information at the address below from 0900 to 1700 hours East African Time (EAT) from Monday to Friday EAT).
Expression of interest shall be sent by e-mail by July/10/2026 at 1700hours EAT to: procurement@igad.int copy: hassan.salah@igad.int, with subject line ''FSRP-AF: Consultancy on Climate Change Simulation Models development to assess impacts on Crop Productivity, Pasture Conditions, and Transboundary Pest Outbreaks Contract No.: DJ-IGAD-556148-CS-INDV